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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (February 23) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for January 2015. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 4.1% in January 2015 over the same month a year earlier, smaller than the corresponding increase (4.9%) in December 2014. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in January 2015 was 2.3%, also smaller than that in December 2014 (3.1%). The smaller increase in January this year was mainly affected by the higher prices in January last year around the Lunar New Year which led to a higher base of comparison.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from November 2014 to January 2015 was 0.1%, and that for the 3-month period from October to December 2014 was 0.5%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from November 2014 to January 2015 was 0.1%, and that for the 3-month period from October to December 2014 was 0.2%.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 6.3%, 3.6% and 2.2% respectively in January 2015, which compared to 6.9%, 4.4% and 3.2% respectively in December 2014. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.3%, 2.1% and 1.4% respectively in January 2015, which compared to 3.9%, 2.9% and 2.4% respectively in December 2014.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from November 2014 to January 2015, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.1%, 0.1% and virtually nil respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from October to December 2014 were 0.8%, 0.5% and 0.3%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from November 2014 to January 2015 were 0.1%, 0.1% and virtually nil respectively, and the corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from October to December 2014 were 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in January 2015 for electricity, gas and water (21.7% in the Composite CPI and 26.6% in the CPI(A), mainly because some households had used up the full amount of Government's one-off electricity charge subsidy); housing (8.3% in the Composite CPI and 11.6% in the CPI(A), due mainly to dissipation of effect of rates concession since October 2014); alcoholic drinks and tobacco (7.3% in the Composite CPI and 8.1% in the CPI(A), mainly due to the increase of tobacco duty); meals bought away from home (4.4% in the Composite CPI and 4.3% in the CPI(A)); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (2.7% in the Composite CPI and 2.4% in the CPI(A)) and miscellaneous goods (1.3% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decrease in prices were recorded in January 2015 for durable goods (-5.5% in the Composite CPI and -5.4% in the CPI(A)), clothing and footwear (-1.9% in the Composite CPI and -1.2% in the CPI(A)) and miscellaneous services (-1.2% in the Composite CPI and -0.2% in the CPI(A)).
As for transport, the Composite CPI remained unchanged over a year earlier but the CPI(A) rose by 2.0%.
For the 3 months ended January 2015, the Composite CPI rose by 4.7% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 6.8%, 4.2% and 2.9% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 2.9%, 3.7%, 2.7% and 2.1% respectively.
For the 12 months ended January 2015, the Composite CPI was on average 4.4% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 5.7%, 4.1% and 3.3%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 3.3%, 3.8%, 3.3% and 2.8% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that inflation remained on an easing trend in January 2015. Nevertheless, the visible moderation in the year-on-year rate of Composite CPI inflation was also partly due to the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in mid-February this year, but in late January last year. As such, it would be more meaningful to examine the figures for January and February combined, when available, in order to form a better judgment on the underlying inflation situation.
The spokesman commented further that, as to the outlook, inflationary pressures should be contained in the near term, as the soft international commodity prices and lower global inflation should keep imported inflation tame, while local cost pressures will likely stay moderate. The Government will continue to monitor the inflation developments closely, particularly its impact on the lower-income people.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for January 2015 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest 3 months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison, seasonally adjusted data series and the CPIs by the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the January 2015 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=B1060001), the time series of CPIs at detailed level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600001) as well as the time series of CPIs at COICOP division level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600002) free of charge at the website of the C&SD.
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Monday, February 23, 2015
Issued at HKT 16:31
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