Advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product for first quarter of 2023
*********************************************************************
According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 2.7% in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, as against the decrease of 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The growth in GDP in the first quarter of 2023 was mainly attributable to the visible increase in domestic demand.
Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure increased by 12.5% in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, much faster than the increase of 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Government consumption expenditure measured in national accounts terms grew by 0.5% in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, after the increase of 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Gross domestic fixed capital formation increased by 5.8% in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, as against the decrease of 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Over the same period, total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded a decline of 18.7% in real terms from a year earlier, after the decrease of 24.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms fell by 14.5% in real terms in the first quarter of 2023, compared with the 22.9% decline in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Exports of services rose significantly by 16.9% in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Imports of services increased by 20.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2023, after the increase of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 5.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 when compared with the fourth quarter of 2022.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy improved visibly in the first quarter of 2023, led by the strong recovery of inbound tourism and domestic demand. According to the advance estimates, real GDP grew by 2.7% in the first quarter of 2023 over a year earlier, ending four consecutive quarters of declines. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP surged by 5.3%.
Analysed by major expenditure component, total exports of goods plummeted further from a year earlier amid the slackened external environment. Exports of services expanded visibly thanks to the resumption of normal travel with the Mainland and the rest of the world. Domestically, private consumption expenditure showed notable growth as sentiment improved sharply along with the removal of anti-epidemic measures in both Hong Kong and the Mainland. Overall investment expenditure reverted to growth amid an improved economic outlook.
Looking ahead, inbound tourism and domestic demand will remain the major drivers of economic growth this year. Visitor arrivals should recover further as transportation and handling capacity continue to catch up. The improving economic situation and prospects should boost domestic demand, though tight financial conditions will remain a constraint. The continued improvement of the labour market and the disbursement of a new round of consumption vouchers will render further support to private consumption. On the other hand, exports of goods will continue to face significant challenges. Slower growth in the advanced economies will continue to weigh on external demand, though the faster recovery of the Mainland economy should provide some relief.
The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the first quarter of 2023, as well as the revised GDP forecast for 2023, will be released on May 12, 2023.
Further information
The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023 are shown in Table 1.
When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the first quarter of 2023 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html) and the Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on May 12, 2023.
For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5077 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Tuesday, May 2, 2023
Issued at HKT 16:30
Issued at HKT 16:30
NNNN