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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (October 2).
The value of total retail sales in August 2015, provisionally estimated at $37.9 billion, decreased by 5.4% compared with the same month in 2014. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in July 2015 decreased by 2.9% compared with a year earlier. For the first eight months of 2015 taken together, the value of total retail sales decreased by 2.2% compared with the same period in 2014.
After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales in August 2015 decreased by 0.2% from a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in July 2015 increased by 1.8% over a year earlier. For the first eight months of 2015 taken together, total retail sales increased by 1.5% in volume over the same period in 2014.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of value of sales and comparing August 2015 with August 2014, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 8.8%. This was followed by sales of commodities in department stores (-8.6% in value); wearing apparel (-13.5%); medicines and cosmetics (-5.1%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-10.2%); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (-10.8%); motor vehicles and parts (-6.5%); fuels (-7.4%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (-4.4%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-4.4%); furniture and fixtures (-5.9%); Chinese drugs and herbs (-17.4%); and optical shops (-8.1%).
On the other hand, the value of sales of commodities in supermarkets increased by 0.4% in August 2015 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment (+3.9% in value); and miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+50.2%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the value of total retail sales decreased by 0.2% in the three months ending August 2015 compared with the preceding three-month period, while the volume of total retail sales remained virtually unchanged.
These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for about 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods in Hong Kong by visitors but exclude spending outside Hong Kong by Hong Kong residents. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the C&SD publication "Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly)" for more details.
Commentary
A government spokesman indicated that retail sales weakened further and recorded a year-on-year decline in volume terms in August. This was in part due to the slowdown in inbound tourism, while the stock market gyrations of late might also have dented consumer sentiment. Besides, the difference in timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which fell in late September this year but in early September last year, also pushed back some related sales and added weakness to the year-on-year performance of retail sales in August.
The near-term outlook for retail sales is still subject to uncertainties, depending on the performance of inbound tourism and on whether there would be further negative impact from the recent heightened stock market volatility. The Government will monitor closely how these factors, as well as the unsteady external environment, may affect the retail business going forward.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for July 2015 as well as the provisional figures for August 2015. The provisional figures on the value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet as well as the corresponding year-on-year changes for the first eight months of 2015 taken together are also shown.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for July 2015 as well as the provisional figures for August 2015. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the first eight months of 2015 taken together are also shown.
Table 3 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.
More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=B1080003).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel: 3903 7400; email: mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Friday, October 2, 2015
Issued at HKT 16:31
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