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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (November 22) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for October 2012. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 3.8% in October 2012 over the same month a year earlier, same as that in September 2012. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in October 2012 was also 3.8%, slightly smaller than that in September (3.9%), mainly due to the smaller increases in private housing rentals.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from August to October 2012 was 1.2%, and the corresponding rate of change for the 3-month period from July to September 2012 was -0.5%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the 3-month period from August to October 2012 was 0.4%, and that for the 3-month period from July to September 2012 was 0.3%.
Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 4.3%, 3.7% and 3.2% respectively in October 2012, which compared to 4.3%, 3.9% and 3.3% respectively in September. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 4.3%, 3.8% and 3.3% respectively in October 2012, which compared to 4.4%, 4.0% and 3.4% respectively in September.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the 3-month period from August to October 2012, the average monthly rates of change in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.7%, 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. The corresponding rates of change for the 3-month period from July to September 2012 were -1.9%, virtually nil and 0.3%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the 3-month period from August to October 2012 were 0.5%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively, and the corresponding rates of increase for the 3-month period from July to September 2012 were 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively.
Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in October 2012 for housing (5.3% in the Composite CPI and 6.5% in the CPI(A)); electricity, gas and water (5.0% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)); meals bought away from home (4.9% in the Composite CPI and 5.0% in the CPI(A)); food (excluding meals bought away from home) (3.2% in the Composite CPI and 3.3% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous services (3.0% in the Composite CPI and 2.1% in the CPI(A)); transport (2.3% in the Composite CPI and 1.7% in the CPI(A)); miscellaneous goods (2.2% in the Composite CPI and 3.1% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (0.6% in the Composite CPI and 1.4% in the CPI(A)) and alcoholic drinks and tobacco (0.6% in the Composite CPI and 0.9% in the CPI(A)).
On the other hand, year-on-year decrease in prices was recorded in October 2012 for durable goods (-1.8% in the Composite CPI and -2.3% in the CPI(A)).
Taking the first ten months of 2012 together, the Composite CPI rose by 4.1% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.5%, 4.5% and 4.3%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.0% and 4.5% respectively in the first ten months of 2012 over a year earlier.
For the 3 months ended October 2012, the Composite CPI rose by 3.8% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 4.2%, 3.8% and 3.2% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 3.8%, 4.2%, 3.9% and 3.4% respectively.
For the 12 months ended October 2012, the Composite CPI was on average 4.4% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.8%, 4.7% and 4.5%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 5.1%, 5.2%, 5.2% and 4.8% respectively.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that inflation remained on a general easing trend. Underlying inflation eased slightly to 3.8% in October, due mainly to the narrower year-on-year increases in the two major components, viz. food and private housing rentals.
The spokesman commented further that, looking ahead, inflation should remain contained for the rest of the year, given the slower local economic growth and lower imported inflation. However, the volatility of international food and commodity prices amid the global liquidity glut and the renewed pick-up in local housing rentals in recent months may pose some upside risks to inflation further down the road. The Government will continue to monitor the inflation situation closely, particularly its impact on the lower-income people.
Further information
The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for October 2012 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest 3 months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.
More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison and seasonally adjusted data series) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the October 2012 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=B1060001).
For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 2805 6403 or e-mail address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.
Ends/Thursday, November 22, 2012
Issued at HKT 16:30
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