************************************************************
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (February 1).
The value of total retail sales in December 2006, provisionally estimated at $21.5 billion, increased by 11.5% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 8.1% in December 2006 over a year earlier.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in November 2006, at $17.0 billion, increased by 7.4% over November 2005, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 5.0%.
Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing December 2006 with December 2005, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts increased the most, by 40.5%. This was followed by sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment (+17.2% in volume); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+13.3%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+12.6%); fuels (+12.4%); commodities in department stores (+8.7%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+5.5%); commodities in supermarkets (+4.3%); furniture and fixtures (+3.6%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+3.1%); wearing apparel (+2.7%); and miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+0.8%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared with the preceding quarter.
For 2006 as a whole, total retail sales increased by 7.3% in value or 5.8% in volume over 2005.
Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing 2006 with 2005, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts increased the most, by 14.4%. This was followed by sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment (+10.8% in volume); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+8.8%); commodities in department stores (+8.3%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+6.4%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+6.4%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+4.6%); furniture and fixtures (+4.5%); commodities in supermarkets (+4.2%); fuels (+4.1%); wearing apparel (+2.8%); and jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+1.0%).
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman pointed out that the volume of total retail sales grew strongly in December 2006 over a year earlier, supported by rising employment income and improved economic fundamentals. The stock market boom should have also lifted consumer sentiment further during the festive season in December, as evidenced by the sharp increases in sales of motor vehicles and other valuable goods. The spokesman also noted that the distinct rebound in inbound tourism in that month was another contributory factor. Going forward, the favourable macroeconomic environment and the upbeat consumer sentiment should continue to render support to retail business.
Further information
The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for November 2006 and the provisional figures for December 2006, with average retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for November 2006 and the provisional figures for December 2006, with average retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales containing the analysis of the December 2006 results is now available for download (in PDF format) free of charge at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk). The print version of the publication can be purchased in the following ways:
* Purchase in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) at HK$10.0 per copy.
* Complete a mail order form which is available for downloading from the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp) and return it to C&SD. Price (excluding postage) is the same as above.
* Purchase online at the Statistical Bookstore or the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm). Print versions if purchased online are offered a discount and are sold at 85% of their original prices. After discount, the price (excluding postage) of the publication is HK$8.5 per copy.
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2802 1258).
Ends/Thursday, February 1, 2007
Issued at HKT 16:15
NNNN