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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (October 27) results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2006.
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, significantly more respondents expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q4 2006 over Q3 2006.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the wholesale and retail; restaurants and hotels; communications; real estate; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q4 2006 over Q3 2006.
Volume of Business/Output
Respondents in all the sectors covered expect an increase in their volume of business/output in Q4 2006 over Q3 2006.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the wholesale and retail; restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; communications; real estate; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their volume of business/output to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease, in Q4 2006 over Q3 2006.
Employment
On employment, respondents in all the sectors covered, except the business services sector, expect it to increase in Q4 2006 over Q3 2006.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their number of persons engaged to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease, in Q4 2006 over Q3 2006.
Selling Price/Service Charge
Regarding selling price/service charge, respondents in all except the import and export trade; and communications sectors expect it to increase in Q4 2006 over Q3 2006.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the restaurants and hotels sector expect their price of food provided/charge for services rendered to increase, as against those expecting it to decline, in Q4 2006 over Q3 2006.
Further Information
The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; wholesale and retail; import and export trade; restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors.
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 530 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy. Views collected refer only to those of the respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (i.e. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
It has to be noted that in this type of survey on expectations, the views are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration. The enumeration period for this survey round was from September 11, 2006 to October 6, 2006.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that, in a survey of this nature, the results should be interpreted with care, as it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q4 2006". Users can download this publication free of charge at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk) of the C&SD.
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$22 per issue. It can be purchased in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address : 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by completing and returning an order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp), or online at the Statistical Bookstore and the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm). Print versions if purchased online are offered at 85% of their original prices.
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2805 6112).
Ends/Friday, October 27, 2006
Issued at HKT 16:15
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