********************************************************
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (March 31).
2. The value of total retail sales in February 2006, provisionally estimated at $16.2 billion, decreased by 3.1% compared with a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales decreased by 4.9% in February 2006 compared with a year earlier.
3. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in January 2006, at $21.2 billion, increased by 11.6% over January 2005, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 10.4%.
4. In interpreting these figures, it should be noted that, affected by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year. The Lunar New Year fell on 29 January this year but on 9 February last year. It is therefore more appropriate to compare the retail sales figures for January and February taken together.
5. Taking the first two months of 2006 together, total retail sales increased by 4.7% in value or 3.2% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
6. Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing January and February 2006 combined with a year earlier, the volume of sales of miscellaneous consumer durable goods increased the most, by 8.9%. This was followed by sales of footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+8.8% in volume); motor vehicles and parts (+8.5%); fuels (+7.3%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+6.9%); commodities in supermarkets (+3.9%); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+3.9%); wearing apparel (+3.0%); commodities in department stores (+2.5%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+1.2%); and furniture and fixtures (+0.4%).
7. On the other hand, the volume of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 7.1% in January and February 2006 combined compared with a year earlier.
8. Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 1.2% in the three months ending February 2006 compared with the preceding three-month period.
9. These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
10. Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
11. A Government Secretariat spokesman pointed out that the overall volume of retail sales grew steadily further in the first two months of 2006 over a year earlier, indicating that consumer spending has stayed rather firm despite the successive interest rate hikes. Looking ahead, the sanguine economic outlook, increase in labour income as well as further expansion of inbound tourism should continue to render support to local retail business in the near term.
Further information
12. The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
13. Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for January 2006 and the provisional figures for February 2006, with average retail sales from October 1999 to September 2000 taken as 100.
14. Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for January 2006 and the provisional figures for February 2006, with average retail sales from October 1999 to September 2000 taken as 100.
15. Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
16. The report containing the analysis of the February 2006 results is now on sale at HK$10.0 per issue. Both print version and download version of the publication can be purchased online at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk). Download version of the publication can be purchased at 75% of its original price exclusively at the online Statistical Bookstore. Print version if purchased online is also offered a discount, at 85% of its original price at the Statistical Bookstore as well as the Government Bookstore (http://www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm).
17. Print version can be purchased through mail order by completing and returning an order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/eng/prod_serv/forms_index.html), or in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025).
18.Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2802 1258).
Ends/Friday, March 31, 2006
Issued at HKT 16:16
NNNN