The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (February 1) the advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2022.
      
     According to the advance estimates, GDP decreased by 4.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 4.6% in the third quarter. The decline of GDP was mainly attributable to the continued weak performance in external trade during the quarter. For 2022 as a whole, GDP decreased by 3.5% in real terms from 2021.
      
     Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 1.7% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022 over a year earlier, as against the small decline of 0.4% in the third quarter. For 2022 as a whole, PCE decreased by 1.1% in real terms from 2021.
      
     Government consumption expenditure (GCE) measured in national accounts terms grew by 9.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022 over a year earlier, after the increase of 5.3% in the third quarter. For 2022 as a whole, GCE increased by 8.1% in real terms over 2021.
      
     Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GDFCF) decreased by 11.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 14.4% in the third quarter. For 2022 as a whole, GDFCF decreased by 8.5% in real terms from 2021.
      
     Over the same period, total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms fell further by 24.8% in real terms from a year earlier, after the decrease of 15.8% in the third quarter. Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms decreased by 22.8% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022, deteriorating from the decline of 16.4% in the third quarter. For 2022 as a whole, total exports of goods and imports of goods recorded decreases of 13.9% and 13.1% respectively in real terms from 2021.
      
     Exports of services increased by 2.3% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022 over a year earlier, as against the decrease of 4.2% in the third quarter. Imports of services increased by 2.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022, after the decrease of 3.2% in the third quarter. For 2022 as a whole, exports of services and imports of services recorded decreases of 0.8% and 1.4% respectively in real terms from 2021.
      
     On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP remained virtually unchanged in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022 when compared with the third quarter.
      
Commentary
      
     A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy continued to register a visible year-on-year contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022. The fall in goods exports widened further, but private consumption resumed growth. According to the advance estimates, real GDP declined by 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, after decreasing by 4.6% in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP showed little change in the fourth quarter, having fallen by 2.6% in the third quarter.
      
     For 2022 as a whole, real GDP shrank by 3.5%, after visible growth of 6.4% in 2021. Total exports of goods plunged amid the sharp deterioration in the external environment and disruptions to cross-boundary truck movements. Domestic demand slackened, dragged initially by the fifth wave of local epidemic and subsequently by tightened financial conditions. Nonetheless, private consumption has seen improvement since the second quarter and particularly towards the end of the year, in tandem with the stabilised local epidemic situation and thus progressive relaxation of social distancing measures, improved labour market conditions and disbursement of consumption vouchers.
      
     Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy is expected to show a recovery in 2023. While softer growth of the advanced economies will continue to pose challenges to Hong Kong's exports of goods, an expected faster growth of the Mainland economy and the relaxation of cross-boundary truck movement restrictions should provide some support. An expected strong rebound of inbound tourism following the removal of quarantine arrangements for visitors and resumption of normal travel between Hong Kong and the Mainland should underpin a recovery of exports of services.
      
     Domestically, an improved economic outlook in tandem with the return of economic activities from the epidemic to normalcy should render a boost to private consumption in 2023, with the strong labour market providing further support. Fixed asset investment will likewise benefit.
      
     The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2022, as well as the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 will be released on February 22, 2023 when the 2023-24 Budget is announced.
      
Further information
      
     The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022 are shown in Table 1. 
      
     When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2022 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html), the Gross Domestic Product (Yearly) Report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030002&scode=250) and the Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly) Report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on February 22, 2023.
      
     For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5077 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk).

Ends/Wednesday, February 1, 2023
Issued at HKT 16:30

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