The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (December 20) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for November 2016. According to the Composite CPI, overall consumer prices rose by 1.2% in November 2016 over the same month a year earlier, remaining virtually unchanged as compared to October 2016. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rate of increase in the Composite CPI (i.e. the underlying inflation rate) in November 2016 also remained virtually unchanged at 2.1% as compared to October 2016.

     On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the three-month period from September to November 2016 was 0.3%, the same as that for the three-month period from August to October 2016. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the average monthly rate of increase in the Composite CPI for the three-month period from September to November 2016 was 0.3%, the same as that for the three-month period from August to October 2016.

     Analysed by sub-index, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 1.2%, 1.2% and 1.3% respectively in November 2016, which compared to 1.1%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in October. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.7%, 1.9% and 1.7% respectively in November 2016, which compared to 2.6%, 1.9% and 1.7% respectively in October.

     On a seasonally adjusted basis, for the three-month period from September to November 2016, the average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 0.5%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The corresponding rates of increase for the three-month period from August to October 2016 were 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.2%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the corresponding average monthly rates of increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) for the three-month period from September to November 2016 were 0.5%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively, and the corresponding rates of increase for the three-month period from August to October 2016 were 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively.

     Amongst the various CPI components, year-on-year increases in prices were recorded in November 2016 for food (excluding meals bought away from home) (3.6% in the Composite CPI and 3.8% in the CPI(A)), meals bought away from home (3.0% in the Composite CPI and 3.2% in the CPI(A)), alcoholic drinks and tobacco (2.2% in the Composite CPI and 3.1% in the CPI(A)), miscellaneous goods (2.2% in the Composite CPI and 2.3% in the CPI(A)), miscellaneous services (2.1% in the Composite CPI and 2.4% in the CPI(A)) and transport (1.8% in the Composite CPI and 1.4% in the CPI(A)).

     On the other hand, year-on-year decreases in prices were recorded in November 2016 for durable goods (-5.0% in the Composite CPI and -4.9% in the CPI(A)); clothing and footwear (-3.0% in the Composite CPI and -2.5% in the CPI(A)) as well as electricity, gas and water (-0.3% in both the Composite CPI and CPI(A)).

     As for housing, the Composite CPI rose by 0.4% over a year earlier but the CPI(A) fell by 0.5%.

     Taking the first 11 months of 2016 together, the Composite CPI rose by 2.5% over a year earlier. The corresponding increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.0%, 2.4% and 2.2%. Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures, the Composite CPI, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 2.3%, 2.6%, 2.3% and 2.1% respectively in the first 11 months of 2016 over a year earlier.

     For the three months ended November 2016, the Composite CPI rose by 1.7% over a year earlier, while the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) rose by 1.8%, 1.6% and 1.6% respectively. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 2.2%, 2.8%, 1.9% and 1.7% respectively.

     For the 12 months ended November 2016, the Composite CPI was on average 2.5% higher than in the preceding 12-month period. The respective increases in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 3.0%, 2.4% and 2.2%. The corresponding increases after netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures were 2.3%, 2.6%, 2.3% and 2.1% respectively.

Commentary

     A Government spokesman said that inflation held largely stable in November. Looking ahead, inflation risks should remain contained in the near term, given the still-low global inflation and moderate rises in local costs. The Government will continue to monitor the inflation developments closely, particularly its impact on the lower-income people.

Further information

     The CPIs and year-on-year rates of change at section level for November 2016 are shown in Table 1. The time series on the year-on-year rates of change in the CPIs before and after removing the effects of one-off measures are shown in Table 2. For discerning the latest trend in consumer prices, it is also useful to look at the changes in the seasonally adjusted CPIs. The corresponding time series on the average monthly rates of change during the latest three months for the seasonally adjusted CPIs are shown in Table 3. The rates of change in the original and the seasonally adjusted Composite CPI and the underlying inflation rate are presented graphically in Chart 1.

     More detailed CPI data (including year-on-year comparison, month-to-month comparison, seasonally adjusted data series and the CPIs by the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)) are available in the monthly reports. Users can download the November 2016 issue of the Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=B1060001), the time series of CPIs at detailed level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600001) and the time series of CPIs at COICOP division level (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp270.jsp?productCode=D5600002) free of charge at the website of the C&SD.

     The new 2014/15-based CPI series, as first announced by the C&SD on April 29, 2016, is compiled on the basis of the expenditure patterns obtained from the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) conducted during October 2014 to September 2015. It replaces the old 2009/10-based series for analysing consumer price changes. To assist data users, the old series will continue to be compiled and published in parallel with the new series until the reference month of December 2016. It is an established practice in Hong Kong for the HES to be conducted and for the CPI series to be rebased once every five years. Both the old and the new series of CPIs have been exhibiting a similar trend in recent months.

     For enquiries about the CPIs, please contact the Consumer Price Index Section of the C&SD at telephone no. 3903 7374 or email address cpi@censtatd.gov.hk.

Ends/Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Issued at HKT 16:30

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