The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (November 24) the external merchandise trade statistics for October 2016. In October 2016, the value of Hong Kong's total exports of goods decreased by 1.8%, whereas the value of imports of goods increased by 0.5% over a year earlier.

     In October 2016, the value of total exports of goods (comprising re-exports and domestic exports) decreased by 1.8% over a year earlier to $313.7 billion, after a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in September 2016. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 1.9% to $310.1 billion in October 2016, whereas the value of domestic exports increased by 1.1% to $3.6 billion. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods increased by 0.5% over a year earlier to $350.9 billion in October 2016, after a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in September 2016. A visible trade deficit of $37.2 billion, equivalent to 10.6% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in October 2016.

     For the first 10 months of 2016 as a whole, the value of total exports of goods dropped by 2.5% over the same period in 2015. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 2.4%, while the value of domestic exports decreased by 10.2%. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods decreased by 2.9%. A visible trade deficit of $341.0 billion, equivalent to 10.5% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in the first 10 months of 2016.

     Comparing the three-month period ending October 2016 with the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of total exports of goods increased by 1.9%. Within this total, the value of re-exports increased by 1.8%, while the value of domestic exports went up by 8.0%. Meanwhile, the value of imports of goods increased by 3.0%.

Analysis by country/territory

     Comparing October 2016 with October 2015, total exports to Asia as a whole went down by 0.9%. In this region, decreases were registered in the values of total exports to some major destinations, in particular Thailand (-12.7%), Japan (-11.0%), Vietnam (-7.0%), India (-3.8%) and Korea (-3.4%). On the other hand, increases were recorded in the values of total exports to Taiwan (+18.2%) and Singapore (+3.9%). Meanwhile, total exports to the mainland of China (the Mainland) remained virtually unchanged.

     Apart from destinations in Asia, decreases were also registered in the values of total exports to some major destinations in other regions, in particular Germany (-15.3%) and the United Kingdom (-13.5%). Concurrently, an increase was registered in the value of total exports to the USA (+0.3%).

     Over the same period of comparison, increases were registered in the values of imports from some major suppliers, in particular Korea (+39.7%), India (+38.2%), the USA (+11.7%), the Philippines (+10.4%) and Singapore (+9.9%). Concurrently, decreases were registered in the values of imports from the Mainland (-8.0%) and Japan (-6.7%).

     For the first 10 months of 2016 as a whole, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of total exports to some major destinations, in particular Vietnam (-8.0%), Japan (-6.1%), Germany (-5.1%), the USA (-4.9%), Korea (-3.6%) and the Mainland (-2.3%). However, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of total exports to India (+12.4%) and Taiwan (+9.0%).

     Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of imports from some major suppliers, in particular Japan (-8.5%), the USA (-4.9%), Malaysia (-4.7%) and the Mainland (-4.6%). On the other hand, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of imports from India (+12.1%), Korea (+6.6%) and Taiwan (+3.5%).

Analysis by major commodity

     Comparing October 2016 with October 2015, decreases were registered in the values of total exports of most principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $8.5 billion or -11.0%), "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $2.5 billion or -16.1%) and "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly jewellery, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares)" (by $2.3 billion or -12.0%). However, an increase was registered in the value of total exports of "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $12.5 billion or 12.5%).

     Over the same period of comparison, increases were registered in the values of imports of some principal commodity divisions, in particular "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $10.8 billion or 9.8%) and "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $2.4 billion or 17.2%). However, decreases were registered in the values of imports of "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $7.0 billion or -9.3%) and "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly jewellery, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares)" (by $2.7 billion or -13.1%).

     For the first 10 months of 2016 as a whole, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of total exports of some principal commodity divisions, in particular "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $35.3 billion or -10.8%), "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $21.4 billion or -3.5%) and "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly jewellery, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares)" (by $19.8 billion or -11.4%). However, a year-on-year increase was registered in the value of total exports of "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $57.5 billion or 6.1%).

     Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year decreases were registered in the values of imports of some principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $30.4 billion or -5.0%), "office machines and automatic data processing machines" (by $29.7 billion or -10.3%) and "miscellaneous manufactured articles (mainly jewellery, goldsmiths' and silversmiths' wares)" (by $13.2 billion or -6.6%). However, a year-on-year increase was registered in the value of imports of "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $70.6 billion or 6.8%).
      
Commentary

     A Government spokesman noted that the value of merchandise reverted to a slight decline over a year earlier in October, after having registered growth in the preceding two months, with mixed performance across major markets.

     The spokesman commented further that looking ahead, Hong Kong's export outlook in the near term will still hinge on global demand conditions. The external trading environment is still subject to uncertainties, including those associated with the US policy directions after the general election. Moreover, the US monetary policy normalisation, monetary policy divergence among major central banks, unfolding Brexit event and heightened geopolitical tensions in various regions are also causes for concern. The Government will monitor the situation closely.

Further information

     Table 1 at the annex presents the analysis of external merchandise trade statistics for October 2016. Table 2 presents the original monthly trade statistics from January 2013 to October 2016, and Table 3 gives the seasonally adjusted series for the same period.

     The values of total exports of goods to 10 main destinations for October 2016 are shown in Table 4, whereas the values of imports of goods from 10 main suppliers are given in Table 5.

     Tables 6 and 7 show the values of total exports and imports of 10 principal commodity divisions for October 2016.

     All the merchandise trade statistics described here are measured at current prices and no account has been taken of changes in prices between the periods of comparison. A separate analysis of the volume and price movements of external merchandise trade for October 2016 will be released in mid-December 2016.

     The October 2016 issue of "Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade" contains detailed analysis on the performance of Hong Kong’s external merchandise trade in October 2016. Detailed merchandise trade statistics analysed by commodity and by country/territory are published in the October 2016 issue of "Hong Kong Merchandise Trade Statistics". The two publications will be available in mid-December 2016. Users can download them free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp230.jsp).

     Enquiries on merchandise trade statistics may be directed to the Trade Analysis Section (2) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5042).

Ends/Thursday, November 24, 2016
Issued at HKT 16:30

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