The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (November 3).

     The value of total retail sales in September 2016, provisionally estimated at $33.8 billion, decreased by 4.1% compared with the same month in 2015. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in August 2016 decreased by 10.5% compared with a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2016 taken together, it was provisionally estimated that the value of total retail sales decreased by 9.6% compared with the same period in 2015.

     After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales in September 2016 decreased by 3.9% compared with a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in August 2016 decreased by 11.0% compared with a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2016 taken together, the provisional estimate of the total retail sales decreased by 8.3% in volume compared with the same period in 2015.

     Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of the provisional estimate of the value of sales and comparing September 2016 with September 2015, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 12.3%. This was followed by sales of commodities in supermarkets (-0.4% in value); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-3.1%); commodities in department stores (-2.4%); electrical goods and photographic equipment (-12.8%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (-6.1%); motor vehicles and parts (-11.2%); furniture and fixtures (-0.7%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-0.3%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (-3.4%); and Chinese drugs and herbs (-0.2%).

     On the other hand, the value of sales of wearing apparel increased by 1.8% in September 2016 over a year earlier. This was followed by sales of medicines and cosmetics (+1.2% in value); other consumer goods, not elsewhere classified (+2.6%); fuels (+0.4%); and optical shops (+1.7%).

     Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the provisional estimate of the value of total retail sales decreased by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2016 compared with the preceding quarter, while the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales decreased by 0.8%.

     Following the release of the 2014/15-based Composite Consumer Price Index in April 2016, the series of value and volume indices of retail sales have been re-referenced, taking October 2014 to September 2015 as the new reference period and adopting the relevant components of the 2014/15-based Composite Consumer Price Index as deflators for compiling the volume index of retail sales. An enhanced technical feature in the re-referenced series is that the volume index of retail sales is compiled based on the chain-linking approach as stipulated in the International Recommendations for Distributive Trade Statistics 2008 published by the United Nations Statistics Division. More details of the re-referencing of the series of value and volume indices of retail sales and the re-referenced index series back to October 2004 were announced on the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/whats_new/rereferencing/index.jsp) on October 14, 2016. As from the reference month of September 2016, the value and volume indices of retail sales and their year-on-year rates of changes published in each month are compiled based on the re-referenced series.

     It should be noted that the effect of re-referencing on the year-on-year rate of change in the volume index of retail sales for September 2016 is minimal, while the corresponding year-on-year rate of change in the value index of retail sales is not affected.

     These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for over 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods in Hong Kong by visitors but exclude spending outside Hong Kong by Hong Kong residents. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.

     Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the C&SD publication "Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly)" for more details.

Commentary

     A government spokesman indicated that retail sales showed a visibly narrower year-on-year decline in September, conceivably due partly to a reduced drag from the smaller decline in visitor arrivals in that month and partly to some improvement in consumer sentiment amid a somewhat more stable external environment.

     Looking ahead, the near-term outlook for retail sales is still subject to uncertainty, depending on the performance of inbound tourism as well as the extent to which local consumer sentiment will be affected by various external uncertainties. The Government will continue to monitor closely the retail sales performance and its repercussions on the wider economy and job market.

Further information

     Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for August 2016 as well as the provisional figures for September 2016. The provisional figures on the value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet as well as the corresponding year-on-year changes for the first nine months of 2016 taken together are also shown. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2014 to September 2015 taken as 100.

     Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for August 2016 as well as the provisional figures for September 2016. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the first nine months of 2016 taken together are also shown. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2014 to September 2015 taken as 100.

     Table 3 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.

     The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.

     More detailed statistics including the historical series of re-referenced retail sales value and volume indices by type of retail outlet are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=B1080003). Alternatively, the historical series with more monthly breakdowns in the past years can be downloaded in the form of a statistical table at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp320.jsp?productCode=D5600089).

     Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel: 3903 7400; email: mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).

Ends/Thursday, November 3, 2016
Issued at HKT 16:30

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