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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 25) results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the first quarter (Q1) of 2007.
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Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, more respondents expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the construction; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006.
Volume of Business/Output
Respondents in all the sectors covered, except the manufacturing sector, expect an increase in their volume of business/output in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their volume of business/output to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease, in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006.
Employment
On employment, respondents in all except the manufacturing and business services sectors expect it to increase in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the banks, financing and insurance sector expect their number of persons engaged to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease, in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006.
Selling Price/Service Charge
Regarding selling price/service charge, respondents in all except the manufacturing and the import and export trade sectors expect it to increase in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006.
Analysed by sector, more respondents in the restaurants and hotels; real estate; and business services sectors expect their selling price/service charge to increase, as against those expecting it to decline, in Q1 2007 over Q4 2006.
Further Information
The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; wholesale and retail; import and export trade; restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors.
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy. Views collected refer only to those of the respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (i.e. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
It has to be noted that in this type of survey on expectations, the views are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration. The enumeration period for this survey round was from December 11, 2006 to January 11, 2007.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that, in a survey of this nature, the results should be interpreted with care, as it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q1 2007". The publication is now available for download (in PDF format) free of charge at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk).
The print version of the publication can be purchased in the following ways:
* Purchase in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025). The publication is for sale at HK$26 per copy.
* Complete a mail order form which is available for downloading from the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat /mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp) and return it to C&SD. The price (excluding postage) is the same as above.
* Purchase online at the Statistical Bookstore or the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm). Print versions if purchased online are offered a discount and are sold at 85% of their original prices. After discount, the price (excluding postage) of the publication is HK$22.1 per copy.
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2805 6112).
Ends/Thursday, January 25, 2007
Issued at HKT 16:15
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