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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (November 2).
The value of total retail sales in September 2006, provisionally estimated at $16.9 billion, increased by 7.5% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 5.8% in September 2006 over a year earlier.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in August 2006, at $17.9 billion, increased by 8.4% over August 2005, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 6.4%.
Taking the first nine months of 2006 together, total retail sales increased by 6.8% in value or 5.6% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing September 2006 with September 2005, the volume of sales of footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories increased the most, by 12.9%. This was followed by sales of motor vehicles and parts (+12.7% in volume); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+12.4%); furniture and fixtures (+10.5%); commodities in department stores (+9.7%); fuels (+7.7%); wearing apparel (+7.2%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (+6.1%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+6.0%); and commodities in supermarkets (+0.2%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of miscellaneous consumer durable goods and of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 2.0% and 0.9% respectively in September 2006 compared with a year earlier.
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 1.4% in the third quarter of 2006 compared with the preceding quarter.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman pointed out that the volume of total retail sales maintained notable growth in September over a year earlier, signifying the continued strength in local consumption spending on a wide spectrum of goods including both essential items and durable goods. This was on the back of the improving employment situation, pause in US interest rate hikes and the positive wealth effect stemming from the buoyant stock market performance. Looking ahead, thriving local consumption and inbound tourism should continue to bode well for local retail business.
Further information
The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for August 2006 and the provisional figures for September 2006, with average retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for August 2006 and the provisional figures for September 2006, with average retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The report containing the analysis of the September 2006 results is now available. Users can download this publication free of charge at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk) of the C&SD.
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$10 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Statistical Bookstore and the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm). Print versions if purchased online are offered a discount, at 85% of their original prices.
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2802 1258).
Ends/Thursday, November 2, 2006
Issued at HKT 16:15
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