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The Census and Statistics Department released today (January 26) results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the first quarter (Q1) of 2006.
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Business Situation
2. For all sectors taken together, more respondents expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q1 2006 over Q4 2005. These sectors include the manufacturing; construction; wholesale and retail; import and export trade; restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors.
3. Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the real estate sector as well as the banks, financing and insurance sector expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q1 2006 over Q4 2005.
Volume of Business/Output
4. Respondents in all the sectors covered except the construction sector and the restaurants and hotels sector expect an increase in their volume of business/output in Q1 2006 over Q4 2005.
5. Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the wholesale and retail; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their volume of business/output to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease, in Q1 2006 over Q4 2005.
Employment
6. On employment, respondents in all sectors expect it to increase in Q1 2006 over Q4 2005.
7. Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the real estate sector as well as the banks, financing and insurance sector expect their number of persons engaged to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease, in Q1 2006 over Q4 2005.
Selling Price/Service Charge
8. Regarding selling price/service charge, respondents in all except the import and export trade; transport and related services; and communications sectors expect it to increase in Q1 2006 over Q4 2005.
9. Analysed by sector, more respondents in the construction sector as well as the restaurants and hotels sector expect their selling price/service charge to increase, as against those expecting it to decline, in Q1 2006 over Q4 2005. Respondents in the real estate sector and the business services sector generally expect their selling price/service charge to increase or to remain the same, while those in the communications sector generally expect their charge for services rendered to decline or to remain the same.
Further Information
10. The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy. Views collected refer only to those of the respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (i.e. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
11. It has to be noted that in this type of survey on expectations, the views are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration. The enumeration period for this survey round was from 13 December 2005 to 6 January 2006.
12. Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
13. Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables. Please note that some figures about the views on expected changes in number of persons engaged released earlier have been revised. Details are given in Table 3 of the survey report.
14. A spokesman of the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) cautioned that, in a survey of this nature, the results should be interpreted with care, as it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.
15. The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q1 2006". This publication is now on sale at HK$22 per issue. Both print version and download version of the publication can be purchased online at the "Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kong" (http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk). Download version of the statistical publication can be purchased at 75% of its original price exclusively at the online Statistical Bookstore (http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk). Print version if purchased online is also offered a discount, at 85% of its original price also at the Statistical Bookstore as well as the Government Bookstore (http://www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm).
16. For purchase of print version, this can be done through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/eng/prod_serv/forms_index.html). Purchase can also be made in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025).
17. Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2805 6112).
Ends/Thursday, January 26, 2006
Issued at HKT 16:18
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