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The Census and Statistics Department today (December 29) released the preliminary Balance of Payments (BoP) accounts and External Debt (ED) statistics for the third quarter of 2005.
I. Balance of Payments Account
A BoP account is an integrated statistical statement of an economy's external transactions with the rest of the world. The BoP account released here contains detailed breakdowns for both the current account and the capital and financial account.
Overall Situation
Hong Kong recorded a surplus amounting to $3.0 billion in its BoP account (at 0.8% of GDP) in the third quarter of 2005, as against a deficit of $5.5 billion (at 1.7% of GDP) in the second quarter of 2005. Reserve assets correspondingly increased by the same amount in the third quarter of 2005.
Of the major BoP components, there was a current account surplus of $41.2 billion (at 11.6% of GDP) in the third quarter of 2005, larger than that of $31.1 billion (at 9.4% of GDP) in the second quarter of 2005. At the same time, a net outflow of financial non-reserve assets amounting to $45.0 billion (at 12.7% of GDP) was recorded in the third quarter of 2005, as compared with a net outflow of $11.4 billion (at 3.5% of GDP) in the second quarter of 2005.
Current Account
The current account recorded a surplus of $41.2 billion in the third quarter of 2005, smaller than that of $51.2 billion in the third quarter of 2004. Compared with the same quarter in 2004, the current account surplus in the third quarter of 2005 was characterised by a decrease in visible trade deficit, an increase in invisible trade surplus, a reverse net outflow of external factor income, and a continued net outflow of current transfers.
With exports of goods increasing faster than imports of goods, the visible trade deficit decreased to $6.9 billion in the third quarter of 2005, from $8.5 billion in the same quarter in 2004. The invisible trade surplus increased to $58.4 billion in the third quarter of 2005, from $49.7 billion in the same quarter in 2004, with exports of services having increased more than imports of services. Overall, a combined visible and invisible trade surplus of $51.5 billion was recorded in the third quarter of 2005, larger than that of $41.2 billion in the same quarter in 2004.
On factor income flows, external factor income inflow and outflow amounted to $124.9 billion and $131.0 billion respectively in the third quarter of 2005, thus yielding a net outflow of $6.1 billion in the third quarter of 2005, as against a net inflow of $14.1 billion in the same quarter in 2004.
A current transfer outflow of $5.4 billion and an inflow of $1.2 billion were recorded in the third quarter of 2005, resulting in a net outflow of $4.3 billion in that quarter, larger than that of $4.0 billion in the same quarter in 2004.
Comparing the third quarter of 2005 with the second quarter of 2005, and bearing in mind that this comparison for the main current account components may be affected by seasonal factors, the visible trade deficit decreased from $19.6 billion to $6.9 billion, while the invisible trade surplus increased from $49.9 billion to $58.4 billion. Concurrently, the external factor income shifted from a net inflow of $4.8 billion to a net outflow of $6.1 billion, while the net outflow of current transfers increased from $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion.
Capital and Financial Account
In the third quarter of 2005, net outflow of capital transfers was estimated at $0.7 billion, as compared with a net outflow of $1.5 billion in the second quarter of 2005.
An overall net outflow of financial non-reserve assets amounting to $45.0 billion was recorded in the third quarter of 2005, as compared with a net outflow of $11.4 billion in the second quarter of 2005. The overall net outflow of financial non-reserve assets in the third quarter of 2005 was the combined result of a net outflow of direct investment, a net outflow of portfolio investment, a net inflow due to cash settlement of financial derivatives, and a net inflow of other investment.
On direct investment (DI) flows, Hong Kong's DI abroad increased by $84.3 billion and foreign DI in Hong Kong increased by $53.7 billion during the third quarter of 2005, resulting in a net DI outflow of $30.6 billion, as compared with a net DI inflow of $3.9 billion in the second quarter of 2005.
On portfolio investment (PI) flows, assets increased by $44.1 billion and liabilities increased by $24.9 billion in the third quarter of 2005. Taken together, there was a net PI outflow amounting to $19.3 billion in the third quarter of 2005, as compared with a net outflow of $91.1 billion in the second quarter of 2005. The rise in PI assets was due to increased holdings of non-resident equity securities and debt securities by Hong Kong residents. On the other hand, the rise in PI liabilities was also attributable to increased holdings of resident equity securities and debt securities by non-residents.
On financial derivatives (FD) flows, a net inflow of $1.0 billion due to cash settlement of FD was recorded in the third quarter of 2005, as compared with a net inflow of $5.7 billion in the second quarter of 2005.
On other investment (OI) flows, assets decreased by $0.3 billion and liabilities increased by $3.7 billion during the third quarter of 2005. Taken together, there was a net OI inflow of $4.0 billion in the third quarter of 2005, as compared with a net inflow of $70.0 billion in the second quarter of 2005. The decrease in OI assets was mainly due to a decrease in currency and deposit assets of other sectors. On the other hand, the increase in OI liabilities was mainly due to increases in trade credit liabilities, other liabilities of other sectors and currency and deposit liabilities of the banking sector.
Change in reserve assets in the BoP account reflects the net change in Hong Kong's foreign currency reserve assets, which come under the management of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). In the third quarter of 2005, reserve assets increased by $3.0 billion, as against a decrease of $5.5 billion in the second quarter of 2005. The accumulation in reserve assets was mainly due to income from foreign currency assets during the quarter.
Table 1 gives the BoP account by standard component. Table 2 gives the detailed current account analysed by sub-account component, while Table 3 gives the detailed capital and financial account analysed by sub-account component.
II. External Debt Statistics
Gross ED, at any point in time, is the outstanding amount of those actual current, and not contingent, liabilities that require payment(s) of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in time in the future and that are owed to non-residents by residents of an economy.
According to this international definition, apart from borrowing from abroad, ED of Hong Kong can also arise through normal trading and banking businesses. For instance, a trade credit extended by an exporter of the United States to an importer in Hong Kong is part of Hong Kong's ED. Likewise, deposits placed by non-residents in a bank in Hong Kong constitute ED of Hong Kong's banking sector.
Overall Situation
At end-September 2005, Hong Kong's gross ED, measuring the total outstanding gross external liabilities other than equity liabilities, amounted to $3,274.0 billion, equivalent to 242% of GDP. Compared with end-June 2005, gross ED increased by $36.6 billion. This was mainly attributable to the increases in ED of DI debt liabilities (inter-company lending) and other sectors, which were larger than the decreases in ED of the banking sector, the HKMA and the General Government.
Sectoral Analysis
At end-September 2005, a major proportion of Hong Kong's ED was due to transactions of the banking sector, accounting for 65.7% of the total. Other ED consisted of debt liabilities to affiliated enterprises and direct investors under DI (with a share of 25.0%), ED of other sectors (8.9%), ED of the General Government (0.4%) and ED of the HKMA (0.1%).
ED of Hong Kong's banking sector, as the largest component of Hong Kong's ED, decreased to $2,150.3 billion at end-September 2005 (at 159% to GDP), from $2,164.0 billion at end-June 2005 (at 163% to GDP). Of this, 97.6% ($2,099.0 billion) were short-term liabilities, among which 97.8% ($2,051.8 billion) were held in the form of currency and deposits. This was mainly attributable to inter-bank placements from non-resident banks.
DI debt liabilities (inter-company lending), constituting the second largest component of Hong Kong's ED, increased to $819.4 billion at end-September 2005, from $785.4 billion at end-June 2005. Within this, 77.4% ($634.6 billion) were debt liabilities to direct investors.
ED of other sectors amounted to $290.2 billion at end-September 2005, larger than that of $269.4 billion at end-June 2005. It was mainly attributable to the increases in short-term trade credits, from $45.7 billion at end-June 2005 to $55.8 billion at end-September 2005, and in other debt liabilities (including both short-term and long-term other debt liabilities), from $51.1 billion at end-June 2005 to $58.2 billion at end-September 2005. Short-term trade credits and other debt liabilities took up 19.2% and 20.1% of the ED of other sectors respectively.
ED of the General Government amounted to $12.3 billion at end-September 2005. All of them were long-term liabilities. This was mainly attributable to the non-residents' holdings of debt securities issued by the HKSAR Government.
ED of the HKMA stood at $1.8 billion at end-September 2005, smaller than that of $6.2 billion at end-June 2005. This was mainly due to a decrease in short-term borrowings under the repurchase agreements and securities lending arrangements, which took up a share of 74.6% ($1.3 billion) of ED of the HKMA.
Table 4 gives the ED statistics by standard component.
Commentary
A Government Secretariat spokesman noted that Hong Kong's overall balance of payments reverted to a mild surplus in the third quarter of 2005, being the third surplus position in the past four quarters. Reflecting improved investment returns from Hong Kong amidst the full-fledged economic upturn, direct investment income outflow increased notably and resulted in a net external factor income outflow. Yet thanks to continued robust export performance, the current account surplus remained fairly sizeable in the third quarter.
The spokesman further noted that inward direct investment was still hectic, yet with even more substantial outward direct investment, there was a net outflow of direct investment. This, together with a marked reduction in net inflow of other investment, contributed to an enlarged net outflow of financial non-reserve assets. Meanwhile, there was a considerably smaller net outflow of portfolio investment caused by the much lesser purchases of overseas debt securities by residents during the third quarter.
Hong Kong's external debt position remained sound. A predominant share of this debt arises from the normal operations of the banking sector and inward direct investment.
Further information
For enquiries on the BoP and ED statistics, please call the Balance of Payments Section of the Census and Statistics Department (Tel.: 2116 8660).
With the incorporation of the latest available survey and other source data, the BoP and ED statistics for the four quarters of 2004 are revised. As regards the BoP and ED statistics for the third quarter of 2005, they are only preliminary, and are subject to revision upon the availability of more data.
In compiling and presenting the BoP account of Hong Kong, the international standards prescribed in the Fifth Edition of the Balance of Payments Manual of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are adopted. As for ED statistics, the international standards prescribed in the External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users published by the Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics chaired by the IMF are adopted. These are also in compliance with the Special Data Dissemination Standard of the IMF, to which Hong Kong has subscribed.
More details on the estimates of BoP and ED are published in the publication Balance of Payments Statistics of Hong Kong, Third Quarter 2005. This publication is now on sale at HK$27 per issue. Both print version and download version of the publication can be purchased online at the ä©•Statistical Bookstore, Hong Kongè’… (http://www.statisticalbookstore.gov.hk). Download version of the publication can be purchased at 75% of its original price exclusively at the online Statistical Bookstore. Print version if purchased online is also offered a discount, at 85% of its original price at the Statistical Bookstore as well as the Government Bookstore (http://www.isd.gov.hk/eng/bookorder.htm). For purchase of print version, this can be done through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SD's website (http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/eng/prod_serv/forms_index.html). Purchase can also be made in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025).
Ends/Thursday, December 29, 2005
Issued at HKT 16:18
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