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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 22) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the first quarter (Q1) of 2016.
Business situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, the proportion of respondents expecting their business situation to be worse (22%) in Q1 2016 as compared with Q4 2015 is higher than that expecting a better business situation (11%).
When compared with the results of the Q4 2015 survey round, the proportion of respondents expecting a worse business situation in Q1 2016 as compared with the preceding quarter has increased to 22%, against the corresponding proportion of 13% in Q4 2015.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the retail sector and the import/export trade and wholesale sector expect their business situation to be worse in Q1 2016 as compared with Q4 2015, relative to those expecting a better business situation. In the information and communications sector, however, more respondents expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting a worse business situation.
A Government spokesman cautioned that the results of the survey should be interpreted with care. "In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends." The enumeration period for this survey round was from December 4, 2015 to January 13, 2016.
Volume of business/output
Respondents in some of the surveyed sectors expect a decrease in volume of business/output on balance in Q1 2016 as compared with Q4 2015. In particular, significantly more respondents in the retail sector and the import/export trade and wholesale sector expect their volume of sales to decrease, as compared to those expecting it to increase. In the information and communications sector and the financing and insurance sector, however, more respondents expect their volume of business to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease.
Employment
Respondents in some of the surveyed sectors expect their employment to increase on balance in Q1 2016 as compared with Q4 2015. In particular, more respondents in the real estate sector (mainly attributable to the more favourable employment outlook amongst respondents in the real estate maintenance management sub-sector); construction sector; and information and communications sector expect their employment to increase in Q1 2016 over Q4 2015.
Selling price/service charge
Respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their selling prices/service charges to remain broadly unchanged in Q1 2016 as compared with Q4 2015. More respondents in the retail sector and the import/export trade and wholesale sector expect their selling prices to go down, as against those expecting them to go up. In the accommodation and food services sector, however, more respondents expect their food prices/service charges to go up, as against those expecting them to go down.
Further information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 570 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
The survey covers 10 major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services (mainly covering services rendered by hotels and restaurants); transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in, and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question is subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" and that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, indicates a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q1 2015 to Q1 2016.
Table 1 shows the net balances of views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q1 2016.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q1 2016". Users can download the publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp300.jsp?productCode=B1110008).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7263 or email: business-prospects@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Friday, January 22, 2016
Issued at HKT 16:30
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