*******************************************************
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (March 1).
The value of total retail sales in January 2012, provisionally estimated at $43.2 billion, increased by 14.9% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 9.1% in January 2012 compared with a year earlier. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
In interpreting these figures, it should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year owing to the timing of the Lunar New Year. The local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high immediately before the Festival. As the Lunar New Year fell on January 23 this year but on February 3 last year, the above year-on-year comparison might have been affected by this factor to a certain extent.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in December 2011, at $43.1 billion, increased by 23.5% over December 2010, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 17.1%.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing January 2012 with January 2011, and also bearing in mind the effect due to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year as mentioned above, the volume of sales of miscellaneous consumer durable goods increased the most, by 89.4%. This was followed by sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment (+47.7% in volume); wearing apparel (+14.6%); commodities in supermarkets (+13.2%); commodities in department stores (+9.5%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+7.7%); and miscellaneous consumer goods (+6.9%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of furniture and fixtures decreased the most, by 24.9% in January 2012 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of motor vehicles and parts (-20.0% in volume); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-11.8%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-9.6%); and fuels (-2.5%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 0.9% in the three months ending January 2012 compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman noted that retail sales grew appreciably further in January 2012 over a year earlier, though at a less rapid pace than that seen in the past two years. In the light of the possible distortions brought about by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in late January this year but in early February last year, it would be more meaningful to analyse the retail sales figures for January and February combined for a clearer picture of the underlying trend.
The spokesman added that looking ahead, the improved income conditions and the prevailing strength of inbound tourism should continue to render support to the retail business in the near term. However, we need to stay vigilant to the headwinds on the external front and closely monitor how they will impact the local economy and consumer sentiment down the road.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2011 and the provisional figures for January 2012. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2009 to September 2010 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2011 and the provisional figures for January 2012. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2009 to September 2010 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.
More detailed statistics are given in the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales. Users can download this publication free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel. : 2802 1258 or E-mail : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
Ends/Thursday, March 1, 2012
Issued at HKT 16:30
NNNN
