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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (March 4).
The value of total retail sales in January 2010, provisionally estimated at $29.3 billion, increased by 6.6% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 3.2% in January 2010 when compared with a year earlier. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
In interpreting these figures, it should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year due to the timing of the Lunar New Year. The local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high immediately before the Festival. As the Lunar New Year fell on February 14 this year but on January 26 last year, the above year-on-year comparison might have been affected by this factor to a certain extent.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in December 2009, at $29.4 billion, increased by 16.1% when compared with December 2008, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 11.4%.
Analysed by broad type of retail outlet and comparing January 2010 with January 2009, and also bearing in mind the effect due to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year as mentioned above, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts increased the most, by 56.8%. This was followed by sales of miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+51.6% in volume); furniture and fixtures (+17.8%); jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+15.5%); electrical goods and photographic equipment (+14.5%); and wearing apparel (+2.4%).
On the other hand, the volume of sales of commodities in supermarkets decreased the most, by 15.5% in January 2010 when compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-10.8% in volume); miscellaneous consumer goods (-2.1%); commodities in department stores (-1.7%); and food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-0.7%).
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 8.0% in the three months ending January 2010 when compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman says that retail sales showed a further year-on-year expansion in January 2010, despite the high base of comparison due to the timing of the Chinese New Year, which fell in January last year but February this year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales rose notably in recent months.
The spokesman adds that consumer sentiment should stay firm going forward, as the economy is on track to recovery. Moreover, the relief measures announced in the 2010/11 Budget will help to consolidate the recovery and further support consumer sentiment. This, coupled with the robust performance of inbound tourism, will help underpin the retail business in the period ahead.
Further information
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2009 and the provisional figures for January 2010. The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for December 2009 and the provisional figures for January 2010. The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC), which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes. Upon the implementation of the new HSIC Version 2.0 by the C&SD in October 2008, the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales has been enhanced to adopt the new classification in compiling the retail sales statistics. Starting from the reference month of January 2009, all the retail sales statistics are compiled based on the HSIC Version 2.0.
The series of retail sales statistics under HSIC Version 2.0 has also been backcasted to the base period (i.e. October 2004 to September 2005). Readers who are interested in the backcasted series or have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel. : 2802 1258 or E-mail : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk).
The C&SD has recently conducted a review on the printing of statistical publications and has decided that the print version of the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales will no longer be produced starting from the 2010 series. Nevertheless, the publication is still available for downloading free of charge from the website of the C&SD at (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/statistical_report/commerce_and_industry/index.jsp).
Ends/Thursday, March 4, 2010
Issued at HKT 16:30
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