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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 29) the external merchandise trade statistics for December 2008. In December 2008, the values of Hong KongĄ¯s total exports and imports of goods both fell markedly, by 11.4% and 16.2% respectively.
In December 2008, the value of total exports of goods (comprising re-exports and domestic exports) decreased by 11.4% over a year earlier to $205.8 billion, after a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% in November 2008. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 10.3% to $200.3 billion in December 2008, while the value of domestic exports decreased significantly by 39.0% to $5.5 billion. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods decreased by 16.2% over a year earlier to $217.6 billion in December 2008, after a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% in November 2008. A visible trade deficit of $11.8 billion, equivalent to 5.4% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in December 2008.
For 2008 as a whole, the value of total exports of goods rose by 5.1% over the same period in 2007. Within this total, the value of re-exports increased by 6.0%, whereas the value of domestic exports decreased by 16.8%. Concurrently, the value of imports of goods increased by 5.5%. A visible trade deficit of $201.1 billion, equivalent to 6.6% of the value of imports of goods, was recorded in 2008.
Comparing the fourth quarter of 2008 with the preceding quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of total exports of goods decreased by 4.8%. Within this total, the value of re-exports decreased by 4.5%, while the value of domestic exports went down by 13.8%. Meanwhile, the value of imports of goods decreased by 6.8%.
Analysis by country/territory
Comparing December 2008 with December 2007, total exports to Asia as a whole went down by 12.2%. In this region, substantial decreases were registered in the values of total exports to most major destinations, in particular Korea (-32.4%), India (-22.2%), Malaysia (-18.8%), the mainland of China (the Mainland) (-12.1%) and Singapore (-9.7%).
Apart from destinations in Asia, distinct decreases were also registered in the values of total exports to some major destinations in other regions, in particular the United States of America (-14.8%), the Netherlands (-13.8%) and the United Kingdom (-10.0%).
Over the same period of comparison, significant decreases were registered in the values of imports from most major suppliers, in particular Taiwan (-38.8%), Korea (-36.9%), Singapore (-29.4%), Japan (-22.9%) and the United States of America (-20.6%).
For 2008 as a whole, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of total exports to most major destinations, in particular India (+50.0%), Germany (+15.8%), Singapore (+9.6%), the Mainland (+4.7%) and Taiwan (+3.8%).
Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of imports from most major suppliers, in particular India (+21.5%), Germany (+11.2%), Thailand (+11.1%), the United States of America (+8.6%) and the Mainland (+6.1%).
Analysis by major commodity
Comparing December 2008 with December 2007, decreases were registered in the values of total exports of most principal commodity divisions, in particular "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $9.1 billion or -21.8%), "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $5.6 billion or -10.2%) and "articles of apparel and clothing accessories" (by $2.2 billion or -11.6%).
Over the same period of comparison, decreases were registered in the values of imports of most principal commodity divisions, in particular "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $12.1 billion or -18.4%), "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $7.9 billion or -21.1%) and "petroleum, petroleum products and related materials" (by $4.0 billion or -46.3%).
For 2008 as a whole, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of total exports of many principal commodity divisions, in particular "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $41.4 billion or 6.4%), "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $31.7 billion or 7.3%) and "non-metallic mineral manufactures" (by $22.6 billion or 33.1%).
Over the same period of comparison, year-on-year increases were registered in the values of imports of many principal commodity divisions, in particular "electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof" (by $24.3 billion or 3.3%), "miscellaneous manufactured articles consisting mainly of baby carriages, toys, games and sporting goods" (by $22.2 billion or 10.8%) and "telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment" (by $21.7 billion or 5.6%).
Commentary
A Government spokesman notes that merchandise exports posted a steeper decline in December, as world trade was severely hit by the deepening global economic downturn. In fact, many other Asian economies also saw double-digit declines in their exports in the more recent months.
The spokesman says that with the global economic downturn deepening, the outlook for Hong KongĄ¯s external trade in the coming months remains subject to considerable uncertainties and downdrag from the rapidly deteriorating external environment. The prospects for a turnaround will depend much on how the financial tsunami will play out and when the external trading environment will begin to improve.
Further information
Starting from the next round of press release on February 26, the X-12 ARIMA method will replace the current X-11 ARIMA method for performing seasonal adjustment of external merchandise trade statistics. The X-12 ARIMA method is an update to the X-11 ARIMA method with enhanced modelling and diagnostic capabilities. The X-12 ARIMA method has now been a standard method used by statistical offices in many countries/territories for performing seasonal adjustment of statistical series.
Table 1 at the annex presents the analysis of external merchandise trade statistics for December 2008. Table 2 presents the original monthly trade statistics from January 2005 to December 2008, and Table 3 gives the seasonally adjusted series for the same period.
The values of total exports of goods to ten main destinations for December 2008 are shown in Table 4, whereas the values of imports of goods from ten main suppliers are given in Table 5.
Table 6 and 7 show the values of total exports and imports of ten principal commodity divisions for December 2008.
All the merchandise trade statistics described here are measured at current prices and no account has been taken of changes in prices between the periods of comparison. A separate analysis of the volume and price movements of external merchandise trade for December 2008 will be released in mid-February 2009.
The December 2008 issue of the "Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade" contains detailed analysis on the performance of Hong Kong's external merchandise trade in December 2008. Detailed merchandise trade statistics analysed by commodity and by country/territory are published in the December 2008 issue of the "Hong Kong Merchandise Trade Statistics". The two publications will be available in mid-February and late February 2009 respectively. Users can download them free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp). Print versions of the publications are for sale at HK$101 and HK$379 per issue respectively. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SDĄ¯s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print versions of the publications are also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries on merchandise trade statistics may be directed to Trade Analysis Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2582 5042).
Ends/Thursday, January 29, 2009
Issued at HKT 16:30
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