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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (April 24) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the second quarter (Q2) of 2008.
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, significantly more respondents expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q2 2008 over Q1 2008.
Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the manufacturing; import and export trade; transport and related services; and business services sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q2 2008 over Q1 2008.
Volume of Business/Output
Respondents in all surveyed sectors expect an increase in their volume of business/output in Q2 2008 over Q1 2008. Among these sectors, significantly more respondents in the manufacturing; import and export trade; transport and related services; communications; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their volume of business/output to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease, in Q2 2008 over Q1 2008.
Employment
On employment, respondents in all surveyed sectors expect it to increase in Q2 2008 over Q1 2008. In particular, significantly more respondents in the wholesale and retail; restaurants and hotels; real estate; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their number of persons engaged to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease, in Q2 2008 over Q1 2008.
Selling Price/Service Charge
Regarding selling price/service charge, respondents in all surveyed sectors, except the banks, financing and insurance sector, expect it to increase in Q2 2008 over Q1 2008. In particular, significantly more respondents in the manufacturing; wholesale and retail; and restaurants and hotels sectors expect their selling price/service charge to increase, as against those expecting it to decline, in Q2 2008 over Q1 2008.
Further Information
The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; wholesale and retail; import and export trade; restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors.
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 550 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy. Views collected refer only to those of the respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (i.e. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
It has to be noted that in this type of survey on expectations, the views are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration. The enumeration period for this survey round was from 10 March 2008 to 10 April 2008.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" over that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Table 1 shows the net balances on views on expectations in respect of different variables.
A spokesman of the C&SD cautioned that, in a survey of this nature, the results should be interpreted with care, as it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q2 2008". The publication is now available for download (in PDF format) free of charge at the website of the Census and Statistics Department (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp).
The print version of the publication can be purchased in the following ways:
* Purchase in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F, Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel: 2582 3025). The publication is for sale at HK$26 per copy.
* Complete a mail order form which is available for downloading from the website of C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp) and return it to C&SD. The price (excluding postage) is the same as above.
* Purchase online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 2805 6112).
Ends/Thursday, April 24, 2008
Issued at HKT 16:15
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