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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (April 1).
The value of total retail sales in February 2008, provisionally estimated at $22.8 billion, increased by 9.5% over a year earlier. After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the volume of total retail sales increased by 4.5% in February 2008 over a year earlier.
The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in January 2008, at $25.7 billion, increased by 23.2% over January 2007, while the volume of total retail sales increased by 17.6%.
In interpreting these figures, it should be noted that retail sales tend to show greater volatility in the first two months of a year due to the timing of the Lunar New Year. The local consumer spending normally attains a seasonal high immediately before the Festival. As the Lunar New Year fell on February 7 this year but on February 18 last year, it is more appropriate to analyse the retail sales figures for January and February taken together in making year-on-year comparison.
Taking the first two months of 2008 together, total retail sales increased by 16.4% in value or 11.1% in volume over the same period a year earlier.
Analysed by type of retail outlet and comparing the combined total for January and February 2008 with a year earlier, the volume of sales of motor vehicles and parts increased the most, by 33.6%. This was followed by sales of electrical goods and photographic equipment (+24.4% in volume); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (+20.2%); wearing apparel (+17.2%); commodities in department stores (+14.1%); miscellaneous consumer goods (+13.7%); miscellaneous consumer durable goods (+7.7%); furniture and fixtures (+7.3%); commodities in supermarkets (+5.8%); and jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (+4.7%). On the other hand, the volume of sales of food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco decreased by 5.7% while that of fuels decreased by 0.3%.
Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of total retail sales increased by 2.5% in the three months ending February 2008 compared with the preceding three-month period.
These retail sales statistics are primarily intended to measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments, for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. They cover consumer spending on goods but not on services. Moreover, they include spending on goods by visitors in Hong Kong but not by Hong Kong residents outside Hong Kong. Hence they should not be regarded as a comprehensive indicator of overall consumer spending. In this context, it may be noted that the share of consumer spending on services in overall consumer spending has been increasing over time.
Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the quarterly series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether domestically or abroad.
Commentary
A Government spokesman pointed out that retail trade continued to perform well. Taking the first two months of 2008 together so as to neutralise the distortion effect caused by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year holidays between 2007 and 2008, the overall volume of retail sales grew briskly at a double-digit rate over a year earlier.
Looking ahead, rising labour income, improved job market and sustained expansion of inbound tourism should continue to provide support to the retail business. However, the effect of the global financial market turmoil on Hong KongĄ¯s retail business has to be monitored.
Further information
The volume of retail sales is derived from the value of retail sales after adjusting for price changes. The relevant components of the Consumer Price Index are used as deflators.
Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for January 2008 and the provisional figures for February 2008 (and also those for January and February combined). The value index is compiled with the average monthly value index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 2 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by type of retail outlet for January 2008 and the provisional figures for February 2008 (and also those for January and February combined). The volume index is compiled with the average monthly volume index of retail sales from October 2004 to September 2005 taken as 100.
Table 3 shows the movement of the volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.
Users can download the Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales free of charge at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/products/publications/index.jsp).
Print version of this publication is available for sale at HK$10 per issue. Purchase can be done in person at the Publications Unit of the C&SD (Address: 19/F Wanchai Tower, 12 Harbour Road, Wan Chai; Tel.: 2582 3025) or through mail order by returning a completed order form which can be downloaded from the C&SDĄ¯s website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/products_and_services/other_services/provision_of_stat/mail_ordering_of_publications/index.jsp). Print version of this publication is also available for sale online at the Government Bookstore of the Information Services Department (www.bookstore.gov.hk).
Enquiries about the survey results may be directed to the Distribution Services Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel.: 2802 1258).
Ends/Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Issued at HKT 16:15
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